Outs odds master table (Rule of 2&4 vs exact, 1-20 outs)
Hit probabilities for 1-20 outs on flop and turn: Rule of 2&4 approximations next to exact hypergeometric values with per-row error, e.g. 9 outs on the flop: 36% approx vs 34.97% exact.
Download CSV · Source: lib/poker-math.ts ruleOf2And4 (hypergeometric exact) · Method: deterministic formula · Data version 2026-07-04
| Outs | Flop x4 approx | Flop exact | Error | Turn x2 approx | Turn exact | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4% | 4.26% | 0.26% | 2% | 2.17% | 0.17% |
| 2 | 8% | 8.42% | 0.42% | 4% | 4.35% | 0.35% |
| 3 | 12% | 12.49% | 0.49% | 6% | 6.52% | 0.52% |
| 4 | 16% | 16.47% | 0.47% | 8% | 8.70% | 0.70% |
| 5 | 20% | 20.35% | 0.35% | 10% | 10.87% | 0.87% |
| 6 | 24% | 24.14% | 0.14% | 12% | 13.04% | 1.04% |
| 7 | 28% | 27.84% | 0.16% | 14% | 15.22% | 1.22% |
| 8 | 32% | 31.45% | 0.55% | 16% | 17.39% | 1.39% |
| 9 | 36% | 34.97% | 1.03% | 18% | 19.57% | 1.57% |
| 10 | 40% | 38.39% | 1.61% | 20% | 21.74% | 1.74% |
| 11 | 44% | 41.72% | 2.28% | 22% | 23.91% | 1.91% |
| 12 | 48% | 44.96% | 3.04% | 24% | 26.09% | 2.09% |
| 13 | 52% | 48.10% | 3.90% | 26% | 28.26% | 2.26% |
| 14 | 56% | 51.16% | 4.84% | 28% | 30.43% | 2.43% |
| 15 | 60% | 54.12% | 5.88% | 30% | 32.61% | 2.61% |
| 16 | 64% | 56.98% | 7.02% | 32% | 34.78% | 2.78% |
| 17 | 68% | 59.76% | 8.24% | 34% | 36.96% | 2.96% |
| 18 | 72% | 62.44% | 9.56% | 36% | 39.13% | 3.13% |
| 19 | 76% | 65.03% | 10.97% | 38% | 41.30% | 3.30% |
| 20 | 80% | 67.53% | 12.47% | 40% | 43.48% | 3.48% |
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BibTeX
@misc{pailiku-outs-odds, title={Outs odds master table (Rule of 2&4 vs exact, 1-20 outs)}, author={{Pailiku Editorial}}, year={2026}, howpublished={\url{https://pailiku.com/stats/outs-odds}}, note={Deterministic dataset, v2026-07-04}}APA
Pailiku Editorial. (2026). Outs odds master table (Rule of 2&4 vs exact, 1-20 outs) [Data set]. Pailiku. https://pailiku.com/stats/outs-odds